The price of Ether (ETH) fell 6% between March 2 and 3, and then traded in a small range close to $1560. Even so, the analysis of the broader duration structure does not give the established trend, because its data chart can be biased towards a downward trend or a long seven-week bull market.

ETH's recent uncertainty is low, in part because of the upcoming Shanghai Hard Fork, which aims to allow ETH to place bets and withdraw cash. Such participants are each asked to lock 32 ETH in the transmission chain to promote a consensus agreement on the Internet.

After a series of delays, the upgrade plan for Capella in Shanghai was launched in early April, which is also a common cause of damage to the manufacturing environment, according to Tim Becco, a key developer and project coordinator at Ethernet Fang. The update of the Golly test network on March 14 is undoubtedly the last rehearsal of Shanghai's hard fork before it is paved online.

Increased risk of economic downturn, beneficial to ETH empty order

At the macroeconomic policy level, Jerome, the current chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, testified before the Federation of Financial institutions of the House of Lords on March 7. Jerome suggested that annual interest rates could be higher than expected after the latest economic indicators were stronger than expected.

Data showed that the Fed meeting lagged behind the inflation curve, increasing the probability that monetary authorities would raise interest rates and sell property more aggressively than expected. For example, an inflation "surprise" index at Citigroup rose for the first time in 12 months in February.

For risky assets, including digital currencies, the more substantial measures adopted at Fed meetings generally represent bearish market prospects as investors seek refuge in fixed income and the dollar. Such changes are becoming more and more pronounced in the economic downturn, and many people suspect that decline is either imminent or already coming.

The regulatory environment is putting extra pressure on digital currency companies, especially after foreign press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre said the White House had noticed that Silvergate, a data encryption-friendly financial institution, had experienced more serious problems in the past few months.

Let's take a look at the Ether derivatives data to see if the $1560 level will become a support point or friction resistance.

ETH derivatives show a reduced need for double heads

In the market environment of education, the three-month futures annualized interest rate equity premium needs to be bought and sold between 5% and 10% to cover costs and associated risks. However, if the transaction price of the contract is lower than that of the traditional spot market (called "spot trading equity premium"), it is a sign of a lack of confidence among traders and is called a bearish indicator.

The picture shows that derivatives traders are becoming more and more restless as the futures premium (average) in Etay Fong fell from 4.9% a week ago to 3.1% on March 7. More crucially, the gap between neutral and rising by 5% is getting longer and longer.

Even so, the reduced need for double-headed (double-headed) financial leverage does not necessarily translate into expected adverse price behavior. Therefore, traders should analyze Ether's options market to understand how dolphins and market makers price the probability of future price adjustments.

The 25% increase error is a significant sign that market makers and hedging arbitrage institutions are charging too much for rising or falling maintenance.

In a bear market, investors in stock index futures feel more likely that prices will fall, causing the tilt index to rise above 10%. On the other hand, rising industries tend to lower their skewness to less than-10%, which means there is less demand for put options to put.

On March 4th, the Delta slope rose above the bearish threshold of 10 per cent, indicating that technical professional traders are under pressure at work. There was a brief improvement on March 7, although the index continued to hover between bearish expectations as stock index futures traders put higher costs on defensive bearish stock index futures.

Investors who make decisions based on stock fundamentals can easily look at the head of Shanghai after the rating rise for a few weeks to consider the potential harm of ETH. Finally, the options and futures markets signal that technical professional traders are reluctant to increase their long positions, which means that $1560 is more likely to become a stress level in the coming weeks.