Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes says catastrophe is coming for the crypto sector, but derivatives data shows bulls slowly taking control of the market.
Although the price of BTC (BTC) remained around $21000 on Jan. 19, the total market value of data encryption soared 29.4% in two weeks.
As a result, it is getting harder and harder to prove that the nearly five-month bearish trend still has an advantage after the top of the $930 billion total data encryption security channel has been captured. Even so, the psychological friction of $1 trillion is still strong.
The move is likely to reflect investors' growing optimism about risky assets, with weaker-than-expected inflation indicators suggesting that the Federal Reserve's (Federal Reserve meeting, FED) interest rate hike strategy should release pressure throughout 2023.
However, Spanish Federal Reserve Chairman Classnott made it clear on January 19th that the European Central Bank (ECB) "will never slow down after raising interest rates by 50% at a time."
At Davos, Nott added: "Core inflation in Europe is not out of danger."
Fundamentally, investors are worried that a new round of interest rate hikes could put further pressure on the company's earnings, resulting in layoffs and deep decline. In such cases, the sale of the stock market becomes a basic scene, and landing in the password market may follow the bear market of the stock market.
To further confirm the strong correlation between digital money and the stock market, the Frederick 2000 index fell 3.4% between January 18 and January 19. The move comes as the total market capitalization of data encryption has been adjusted by 4% after struggling at $100 million on January 18.
BTC's overall market capitalization rose 10.4 per cent from January 12 to 19, mainly due to a 10.4 per cent rise in BTC and an 8.7 per cent rise in ETH. Bullish mentality has a greater impact on alternative currencies, with eight of the top 80 coins rising by 20% or more during this period.
The Metverse dynamic password rose after the Internet giant Apple announced that it would release its VR hat. The biggest increase included Decentaland (MANA), up 55 per cent. Enjin (Enjin) rose 37 per cent. Sandbox (gravel) rose 30 per cent.
FRAX shares (FXS) rose 40 per cent to 65000 Ether, as the agreement currently locks in more than $100m in total.
Because of increased regulatory risk, privacy currencies such as Monero (XMR) and ZCash (ZEC) fell at the same time, and the US Department of Justice announced the arrest of the founder of Bitzlato, a P2P login password trading center that has been closed.
Financial leverage bullish bets demand higher
Permanent contracts, also known as reverse swaps, have a placed annual interest rate, which is usually deducted every eight hours. The trading center uses this expense to prevent discounting risk disorders.
Stable financing rates suggest that duo (customers) need more financial leverage. However, when buying short (merchants) requires extra leverage, it is easy to reverse the situation, causing financing interest rates to become negative.
The seven-day financing rate is all positive under most premises, which means that the data show that the need for financial leverage double ends (customers) is higher during this period. Even so, for most investors, deducting 0.25% of the weekly fee to maintain bullish trading is certainly not an important concern.
Therefore, traders should dissect the options market to see whether dolphins and hedge arbitrage units are holding higher stakes in bullish or bearish strategies.
According to BTC Options, investors are not worried about falling.
Traders can measure the overall mentality of the sales market by considering more thematic activities by bullish (buying) stock index futures or selling (selling) stock index futures. Generally speaking, bullish stock index futures are used for bullish countermeasures, while bearish stock index futures are used for bearish countermeasures.
The put-to-call ratio of 0.70 shows that the unforced closing interest rate of put options lags behind the bullish stock index futures by 30%, so it is bullish. By comparison, the 1.40 index is good for 40% of bearish stock index futures, which can be called bearish.
Although BTC was unable to raise the pressure level of $21500 on Jan. 18, there is no sign of an increase in the need for downside maintenance. This is becoming more and more pronounced, as bearish stock index futures have been trading less than 0.80, even after falling 5.5% on January 18.
Neutral-to-bearish thinking is still in rapid demand in the bitcoin options market, favouring 23% bullish (buy) stock index futures.
The derivatives market shows that the $930 billion level is strong.
Looking back on the strong gains of the past seven days, the cryptocurrency market is once again malleable, although Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, warned of a "global financial collapse". This year may be as bad as in 2022, until the Fed meeting turns, Hayes wrote, adding that the scene is his "basic profile."
According to the index value of login password derivatives, there is little fear or lack of demand for financial leverage after the total market capitalization missed a good opportunity to raise the price by $100 million for the first time. These are encouraging signs, especially the analysis of the technical indicators of the decline in safe passage crossing.
Therefore, it is more likely that $930 billion at the top of the previous safe passage will become a strong support line. So, for now, even the slump in traditional markets should not become a big concern for those who are bullish on landing codes, but investors should keep an eye on derivatives indicators.