The etheric Charitable Foundation announced on April 12 the expected deployment time for upgrades in Beijing and Capella, known as Shapera.

The upgrade will allow divestment from the Ethernet 2.0 chip agreement. Bet that the contract will be first released in December 2020. It only allows unilateral savings of the ETH, which may change after the upgrade.

Since December 2020, customers have already deposited more than 18 million ETH in the etheric bet agreement, worth about $32.5 billion.

Investment analysts may have different pressure on ETH selling

Most users choose to carry out liquidity bet derivatives (LSD) in decentralized or intensive trading centers. So these storage tanks are already mobile, so after the Shapella upgrade, there are bound to be different reasons to sell.

The blockchain technology LSD service platform such as Lido is about 33.2% of the total ETH savings on Beacon Chain at this stage. About 27.1 per cent of the rest of the savings are deposited by intermediary trading centres such as Coinbase, Binance and Kraken. Therefore, 60.3% of the pile ETH is accumulated by liquid pile material.

On the other hand, the non-negotiable ETH immediately deposited into the contract by establishing a connection point or a third-party service provider is about 40% of the total. This is most likely to be sold after activation.

According to Nansen, about 59 per cent of non-liquid mines (3.62 million to 4 million ETH) are profitable. This part of the population is most likely to withdraw cash or all of it after the withdrawal is started.

Some illiquid storage tanks may also choose to reinvest, and Nansen reports that the total selling pressure is between 1.2 million and 3 million ETH. However, every ETH is not easy to be sold to the enterprise immediately.

Views on the usual selling pressure

Shapera upgrade will implement some of the secondary exit rules and regulations.

The minimum total amount of investment in ETH is 32 ETH. The betting person can get more than 32 ETH amounts or get all 32 ETH altogether, plus a task reward from the chip agreement.

There will not be a sharp rise in gasoline prices caused by the hasty withdrawal of ETH after upgrading. Etheric withdrawals are free of gas charges, but there must be no more than 16 or all withdrawals per block chain. As a result, the total number of ETH opened and transferred to sale may be delayed.

According to Nathan's report, there will be three stages of buying in ETH after the upgrade.

During the first phase, which lasts 27 hours after the system is reinstalled, the selling pressure caused by some divestment will be about 84000 to 125000 ether (about $133 million to $197 million) per day.

The second phase will see greater selling pressure from some of the divestments, with a daily cumulative additional selling pressure of 136000 and 173000 ethernet (about $218 million to $275 million). This phase will continue from the third to the fourth day after the upgrade.

The sell-off at a later stage, usually full divestment, will continue for 19 to 52 days, increasing daily selling by 48000 to 53000 ethernet per day.

The 30-day moving average of foreign exchange inflows is 313533 ETH (with a use value of about $550 million), meaning net inflows of additional funds will be somewhere between 15 and 55 per cent of the moving average. It may lower Ether prices until the selling pressure dissipates within three to eight weeks.

Another Arcana Research may find that ETH will sell about 1.3 million units in the first ten days because of partial divestment. Selling pressure will peak in the first three days, with a daily selling pressure of about $527 million (adjusted for Ether's current price of $1800). It accounts for about 6.4 per cent of ETH's daily turnover.

Less than two weeks after the rating rises, traders may try to place orders in the futures market to get ahead of selling pressure. So far, the futures market has not shown a significant increase in unforced liquidations or arbitrage financing rates.

The gradual withdrawal of ETH will reduce the risk of owning liquid chip derivatives purchased according to decentralized or centralized trading centers, so these derivatives will redeem ETH. Therefore, investors who hesitate to explore and discover chips and hobbies will offset the selling pressure to some extent.

The proportion of etheric bets, that is, hexane accounts for 14.96% of the total supply of commodities in circulation. This is much lower than the industry average of other Tier 1 blockchain technologies. In the long run, ETH's bet share is expected to improve.

On the technical level, the ETH/ dollar encounters friction resistance at the level of $1970. To increase this friction resistance, the foreign exchange currency is expected to exceed the overall target of about $2330 and $2750. In an economic downturn, the support line is around $1569.

Ethernet will experience one of the most common upgrades since September 2022. After the Shapella upgrade, ETH divestment is likely to have more selling in the head after deployment, putting short-term pressure on the price. However, as the sell-off calms down, and more users invest in ETH because of the minimum and increased returns, in the long run, the current market situation is likely to gradually benefit a lot of gains.