$4.2 billion in BTC options expire on March 31, and despite weeks of harsh regulatory action against the crypto sector, bulls are well positioned to profit.
Regulation remains a key concern for both Bitcoin, especially after the Foreign Commodity Futures Trading Federation (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against Binance for violating laws and regulations on trading derivatives. Regulators expect Binance repayment to receive profits from buying and selling transactions, profits, salaries, commissions, loans and costs from U. S. citizens, and to pay civil penalties for violations.
The change in sentiment towards risky assets also contributed to the rise in BTC after Jerome, the current chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (Fed meeting / FED), made it clear that raising interest rates was no longer the default measure to curb inflation. The central bank has learned that the current situation may lead to a tightening of bank credit for homes and businesses, which on the contrary will affect the conclusion of economic development.
When interest rates rise, fixed-income investors earn more, making buying and selling stocks and commodities spot less attractive. So, according to the reverse response, raising debt by $339 billion in a week, the Fed meeting chose to resist the plight of commercial banks, which could lead to uncontrollable inflation.
Taking full account of the appreciation of risky assets, Bitcoin duo can make a profit of $1.4 billion when its monthly options expire on Friday.
The Bitcoin empty bill was completely caught off guard.
The open position due on March 31st is about $4.2 billion, but the actual figure will be lower, as the total demand for short orders is expected to be less than $26500. The trader was surprised because Bitcoin rose 32% between March 12 and March 17.
The bearish ratio of 1.34 reflects the imbalance between $2.4 billion bullish (buy) unforced unliquidated interest and $1.8 billion put (sell) option. But if the price of Bitcoin stays around $28000 at 8 a.m. on March 31st, only $25 million of these put (sell) options will be available. The reason for this change is that if bitcoin expires above this level, the right to sell bitcoin for $26000 or $27000 is worthless.
Double heads set their sights on $29000 to guarantee a record profit of $1.4 billion
The following are the four most likely scenarios based on current market prices. Depending on the maturity price, the total number of option contracts suitable for bullish (bullish) and bearish (bearish) instruments varies from March 31 to March 31. Instability that is beneficial to each other forms the theoretical profit:
- Between $25000 and $26000:27200 put options versus 12700 put options. The final results show that the bullish (bullish) tool has increased by $360 million.
- Between $26000 and $27000:32300 put options versus 8500 put options. The final results show that the bullish (bullish) tool has increased by $620 million.
- Between $27000 and $28000:38100 put options versus 3000 put options. The double head expands the advantage to $1.2 billion.
- Between $28000 and $30,000:48300 put options against 400 put options. The bulls made a profit of $1.4 billion, which is dominant.
This may roughly take into account the call options commonly used in call bets and the put options commonly used only in neutral to put trades. Even so, this overly simplistic approach ignores more complex investment advice.
For example, traders can sell call options and efficiently get the negative open-ended bitcoin above a certain price, but unfortunately, there is no easiest way to make this impact possible.
The better chance for bears depends on the control of FUD.
Bitcoin bulls will have to push the price of bitcoin to around 29000 by March 31st to secure the hidden $1.4 billion profit. On the other hand, the best way for Bear Stearns is to exercise more control over the smooth code or key login password trading center. FUD- has not yet been concluded.
Fully taking into account the bullish trend created by the Fed's weak meeting to raise interest rates again, double heads are fully prepared for the expiration of monthly BTC options in March. It is most likely that such profits will be mainly used to further strengthen the support point of $28000, so the expected results are particularly worrying for short orders.
The price of Bitcoin has been around $28000 for the past 10 days, but the digital currency has risen 70.5% so far this year. Until March 17, Bitcoin traded at less than $25000, which explains why most bearish bets on the expiration of $4.2 billion options in March are at $26500 or lower.